Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Customs. Greetings. During Your Business Trip, Itââ¬â¢S Important
CUSTOMS Greetings During your business trip, itââ¬â¢s important to learn the correct ways of greeting Saudiââ¬â¢s to form a good first impression. This can be key for the success of your business trip. When greeting, you should show respect by starting with the most senior person first. Greetings can differ in many situations, for instance, men shake hands with men, and women shake hands with other women. A man greeting a woman should be guided by her behavior and women should wait and see how the male greets them. Men should not look, or talk to the women unless they have already been introduced. A simple way to avoid mistakes, is to simply put your hand over your heart. Once introduced itââ¬â¢s customary to inquire about general things like theirâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦You can join that conversation, but shouldnââ¬â¢t return to your topic until that previous person has left. In western cultures, the person who asks the most questions holds the most responsibility but in Saudi Arab ia, that person is considered to be the least respected or least important. For this reason, if you are in a business meeting in Saudi Arabia, it is advised not to ask all the question (Saudi Arabia, n.d.). In general, the process of negotiating and making decisions is very slow. Business decisions are made by the highest-ranking person and take several visits to accomplish. They usually need many layers of approval and can also easily be changed. (Saudi Arabia Guide, n.d.) Business Agenda The business agenda for your meeting but may have better success ââ¬Å"scheduling a specific meeting once you have arrived in Saudi Arabia.â⬠(The Saudi Network, n.d.). Among certain obligations for Muslims are to pray five times a day - at dawn, noon, afternoon, sunset, and evening. (Commiscro Global Consultancy LTD 2016, n.d.). They have to stop working when the time came. The exact time is listed in the local newspaper each day. Friday is the Muslim holy day, so everything is closed. Many companies also close on Thursday, making the weekend Thursday and Fridayâ⬠(Commiscro Global Consultancy LTD 2016, n.d.). Accessibility Upon travel to Saudi Arabia,Show MoreRelatedA Note On Making A Connection1776 Words à |à 8 PagesMaking a Connection Other than word of mouth, business cards are essential when trying to make a business connection. It is always important to always carry business cards because making a connection be spontaneous or even when seeking business partners or deals, it often starts with a business card being exchanged. First impression are everything and your card represents you and your company. Singapore ââ¬â your name, title and company: one side should be printed in English and the reverse side shouldRead MoreInternational Business Develop Fast2198 Words à |à 9 Pages Today,international business develop fast,it is important to communicate in different cultures .we should understand the difference which exist between other culture and ours. everyone from different countries or culture is quite different,it is required that we have to know a little bit about other cultures,for example,a word can have several meanings referring different cultural background.How to avoid misunderstand or even conflict, it is a problem we need to think about and solve. In mostRead MoreEssay on Introduction to Singapore4540 Words à |à 19 PagesChesterton made a good statement considering the business worlds increasing globalization where an understanding of international protocol has become more a necessity than a choice. 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Also, since the dimensions of culture in any nation are many, it is necessary to analyze each category that makes up the DimensionsRead MoreBrazil Culture17445 Words à |à 70 PagesISTANBUL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION JANUARY 2007 .INDEX Prefaceâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦3 List of Tablesâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 3 I. INTRODUCTIONâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.4 II.CULTURAL PATTERNS OF BRAZILâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. A. Social Institutionsâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 1. Historicalâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦5 2. Geographicalâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 7 3. Demographicalâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 8 4. Politicalâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 10 5. Economicâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦13Read MoreA Comparison Between Chinese Etiquette and the Western Etiquette5197 Words à |à 21 Pagesä ¸ è ¥ ¿Ã¦â" ¹Ã§ ¤ ¼Ã¤ » ªÃ¦â"â¡Ã¥Å'â"Ã¥ · ®Ã¥ ¼â-çâŸæ ´ »Ã§â¢ ¾Ã§ §â With China entry the WTO and will hold the Olympic games in 2008, the relationship between China and Western in politics, economy, culture will become more and more close. It is undoubtedly that the etiquette will play an important role in this process. To the definition of etiquette, China and Western have a different understanding. As Chinese thinks that the etiquette is the common behavior standards that all the members must obey, and its purpose is to keep the normal living orderRead MoreStarting Up a Travel Agency7255 Words à |à 30 Pagesmanagement and marketing. Sephats Tours intends to provide travel and adventure packages to tourists primarily in the Southern region, but also the whole of Botswana. Services and products provided by Sephats will initially include pre-arranged tours, custom packages according to clients specifications, travel consultation, and as time progresses making reservations for lodging amongst other related services. Sephats Tours seeks to differenti ate itself as the premier adventure mobile operator in the greaterRead MoreCross Cultural Communication9880 Words à |à 40 PagesCountries This paper gives a short overview of the observed behavioral pattern across some of the far east Asian countries. Understanding these behavioral patterns is important for doing effective communication with people/people group from these countries. The effective communication holds one of the key of establishing business and personal relationship in these countries. This paper also looks into some of concepts and theories in intercultural and Cross-cultural communication, thus providing
Monday, December 16, 2019
Research Proposal Electronic Health Records Free Essays
string(48) " that the computer literacy rate was high \(72\." Effects of Technological Experience on Adoption and Usage of Electronic Health Records Introduction The integration of electronic health records in the IT infrastructures supporting medical facilities enables improved access to and recording of patient data, enhanced ability to make more informed and more-timely decisions, and decreased errors. Despite these benefits, there are mixed results as to the use of EHR. The aim of this research is to determine if medical health professionals who lack experience with technology are slower to adopt and use electronic health records (EHR). We will write a custom essay sample on Research Proposal Electronic Health Records or any similar topic only for you Order Now Research has shown that the healthcare industry is plagued by rapidly increasing costs and poor quality. The United States medical care is the worldââ¬â¢s most costly, but its outcomes are mediocre compared with other industrialized, and some non-industrialized, nations. Medical errors are a major problem resulting in upwards of 98000 deaths a year; as a result, patient safety has become a top priority. The healthcare system has been slow to take advantage of EHR and realize the benefits of computerization: that is, to improve access to records and patient data, to reduce incorrect dose errors, avoid drug interactions, and ensure the right patient is in the operating room (Noteboom 2012). Despite the obvious benefits a 2007 survey by the American Hospital Association reported that only 11% of hospitals had fully implemented EHR. Another study by Vishwanath Scamurra reported less than 10% of physicians in different practices and settings in the US use EHR. Blumenthal (2009) cites only 1. 5% of US hospitals have comprehensive EHR systems. A similar 2009 study by the American Hospital Association shows less than 2% of hospitals use comprehensive EHR and about 8% use a basic EHR in at least one care unit. These findings indicate the adoption of HER continues to be low in US hospitals (Manos, 2009). Understanding the reason for the lack of technological integration is pivotal to securing quality and affordable medical care. Education expert Mark Prensky (2001) defined two terms, digital natives and digital immigrants, which he used to describe those who have an innate ability for technology from an early age (native) and those who are slower to learn and adopt it (immigrant). This disparity is suggested to play a key role in the ability and desire of professional to use technological solutions in their day-to-day activities. Our intent is to expand this possibility to medical health professionalsââ¬â¢ use of electronic health records. Our research will attempt to determine if being native to technology has any impact on a practitionerââ¬â¢s desire to incorporate information technology in to their work routine. We will also see if natives have perform better in health information settings as has been shown in other areas. Previous Research A 2008 study by DesRoches et al. attempted to discern barriers to the adoption of electronic health records. The authors conducted a survey of physicians registered in the masterfile of the American Medical Association, excluding Doctors of Osteopathy. The authors listed 4 basic reasons the respondents could choose from; financial barriers, organizational barriers, legal barriers, and barriers from the state of the technology. Respondents could further clarify their responses base on subgroups. Financial barriers could include initial capital to implement the systems or uncertainty about the return on investment. Organizational barriers were sub-divided in to physician didnââ¬â¢t want to, the physicians did not have the capacity to, or they feared there would be a loss of productivity during implementation. Legal barriers included fears of breaches of confidentiality, hackers, and legal liability. State of technology included failure to locate an EHR that could meet their needs or that the system would become obsolete to quickly. Their results show that 66% of physicians without EHRââ¬â¢s cited capital costs as a reason. The also responded with not finding a system to meet their needs, 54%, uncertainty about their return on the investment, 50%, and concern that a system would become obsolete, 44%. Physicians working in locations with EHRs tended to highlight the same barriers, though less frequently. The authors concluded that financial limitations are the greatest barrier to the adoption of electronic health records. They do admit that their study, like all surveys, could be subject to response bias. Burt (2005) also surveyed physicians, this time from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, a yearly survey conducted by the US census bureau. The authors were attempting to find correlations between EHR implementation and other statistics, such as age, practice size, and ownership (physician, physician group, or HMO). They used regression modeling and bivariate analysis of three years of survey data. They found that practices owned by HMOs were three times more likely to adopt EHR as single physician or group owned practices. Also, large physician group owned practices (20 or more) had an increased usage of EHR over small group and single physician owned. The authors reported that there were no variations due to practice size in the different ownership groups. Physiciansââ¬â¢ age did not have any effect on EHR usage. The authors concluded that the ability of larger practices to spread the sizable investment required to purchase and implement the technology over more physicians and services was the largest factor in implementation EHR. Laerum (2001) was the first to look at how individual Physicians interact and use EHRs on an everyday basis. The conducted surveys and telephone interviews with physician in 32 units of 19 hospitals in Norway, because a much higher percentage of Norwegian hospitals use EHR, about 73%. The authors selected 23 possible common tasks a physician that could be assisted by or completed by an EHR. The also collected computer literacy data, respondent age and sex and overall satisfaction with the system. The authors found that very few of the possible tasks were being utilized in the EHR. The found that on average physicians were using EHR for 2 to 7 of the possible 23 tasks. Most of the tasks used related to reading patient data. The also found that the computer literacy rate was high (72. You read "Research Proposal Electronic Health Records" in category "Essay examples" 2/100) and there was no correlation with respondents age or sex. They gave the users satisfaction as a generally positive rating. Though demonstrating that physicians use EHR less than they could they gave no explanation as to why. Simon (2009) followed the same path as Laerum mentioned above, surveying physicians usage of EHR in practices that have systems deployed. The authors identified ten main functions available in EHR systems deployed in hospitals in Massachusetts. They attempted to determine if these ten functions were actually being utilized or if the physicians were still using paper. The authors deployed mail based surveys, in 2005 and 2007, to physician in Massachusetts. The surveys asked the practitioners if they had an EHR deployed in their hospital, if and how they used the EHR for the ten predetermined tasks, and simple demographic information. The authors found that while EHR deployment grew by 12% (from 23% to 35% of hospitals), the amount of usage self reported didnââ¬â¢t change. EHRs were still mostly being used for reading patient data, but there was a small increase in the use of electronic prescribing, with 19. 9% of physicians with this function available in 2005 using it most of the time, compared to 42. 6% in 2007. Linder (2006) expanded on this by asking why physicians arenââ¬â¢t using EHRs. The authors also conducted a survey of Partners Healthcare; which supports an internally developed, web based, fully functioning EHR called Longitudinal Medical Record. They also expanded their base to include nurses, nurse practitioners, and physicians. The survey contained basic demographic information, self-reporting skill level with the EHR, how often they used the EHR, and what they felt were barriers to their use of the system. Since this survey was contained to a system that had already implemented the EHR, the authors had removed the typical barriers of capital as reported above, but they still found that 25% never or rarely used the system, and less than 15% used the system exclusively every time, i. e. never took paper notes or wrote paper prescriptions. They found no correlation of EHR usage to age or gender, but did find that nurses were slightly less likely to use the system. The most uprising data was why practitioners said they didnââ¬â¢t use the EHR with 62% of respondents saying they didnââ¬â¢t want to suffer a loss of eye contact with the patients and 31% of respondents saying that they thought it was rude to use a computer in front of a patient. Other notable reasons were falling behind schedule at 52%, computer being to slow (49%), typing skill (32%), and preferring to write ââ¬Å"long prose notesâ⬠(28%). This was the first study to identify social barriers to the adoption of EHR in professional settings. Since the majority of the research had been unable to identify simple solutions a series of workshops consisting of industry leaders were formed to study the problem. Kaplan (2009) reports that participants convened and discussed current issues and challenges with widespread adoption of EHR. The workshops conclude that while there are still some technical issues with Information technology in the health sector the main focus needs to shift to revealing sociological and cultural problems. Noteboom (2012) took a different method to determine barriers to EHR adoption; eschewing all previous research in to problems with the usage of EHRs. The authors decide to use an approach more commonly seen in social sciences called open coding, a type of grounded theory. This method is almost the complete revers of traditional research in that it starts with data collection. From this data, key points of text, in this case transcripts from case studies, are marked with a series of codes. These codes are anchors that allow key points of data to be gathered. The researcher can then use these key points to construct a theory or hypothesis. Noteboom started with simple interviews with physician, attempting to elicit ââ¬Å"perceptions, meanings, feelings, reasons, and commentsâ⬠about their interaction with EHRs. The interviewed physician at the Research Medical Center, Kansas City, and labeled the transcripts of these interviews. From these interviews the authors discovered that users of EHR fall victim to positive and negative work cycles. Positive cycles are ways in which the system helps the physician, i. e. quicker reading of patient data or mining historical data. Negative cycles are tasks that take longer like data entry, which was done by nurses prior to EHR implementation, or lack of specific functions for specialists, calculate rad dosage for radiation therapy. Design Our research methodology will consist of a case study of medical health professional, preferably physicians, physician assistants, nurses, and nurse practitioners, currently employed in an institute running EHRs. The primary data will be gathered through interviews to elicit perceptions on ability to adapt to and use new technology, feelings on the implementation of the technology, comments about the systems, and history of their technology use (to determine natives and immigrants). Secondary data will be collected by having competent users observing participants interaction with the system and evaluating their efficacy. Once the data has been collected it will be analyzed to determine if there is any correlation between digital natives and digital immigrants as it pertains to their use of EHR. Special attention will be paid to how often the system is used compared to the theoretical maximum and how efficient the practitioner is compared to how efficient they perceive they are. Requirements to conduct this study are small. All that is required are willing hospitals that have EHR systems installed, hopefully with a diverse staff spanning many age groups and experience levels. We would also require around 5 interviewers who are well versed in assessing software efficacy to conduct the interviews and gauge practitionersââ¬â¢ abilities on the EHR system. Statistical data will be calculated on IBM SPSS or similar. ? References Bates, D. W. , Ebell, M. , Gotlieb, E. , Zapp, J. , Mullins, H. C. (2003). A proposal for electronic medical records in US primary care. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 10(1), 1-10. Blumenthal, D. (2009). Stimulating the adoption of health information technology. New England Journal of Medicine, 360(15), 1477-1479. Burt, C. W. , Sisk, J. E. (2005). Which physicians and practices are using electronic medical records?. Health Affairs, 24(5), 1334-1343. DesRoches, C. M. , Campbell, E. G. , Rao, S. R. , Donelan, K. , Ferris, T. G. , Jha, A. , â⬠¦ Blumenthal, D. (2008). Electronic health records in ambulatory careââ¬âa national survey of physicians. New England Journal of Medicine, 359(1), 50-60 Kohn, L. T. , Corrigan, J. , Donaldson, M. S. (2000). To err is human: building a safer health system (Vol. 6). Joseph Henry Press. Kaplan, B. , Harris-Salamone, K. D. (2009). Health IT success and failure: recommendations from literature and an AMIA workshop. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 16(3), 291-299. L? rum, H. , Ellingsen, G. , Faxvaag, A. (2001). Doctorsââ¬â¢ use of electronic medical records systems in hospitals: cross sectional survey. Bmj, 323(7325), 1344-1348. Linder, J. A. , Schnipper, J. L. , Tsurikova, R. , Melnikas, A. J. , Volk, L. A. , Middleton, B. (2006). Barriers to electronic health record use during patient visits. In AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 499). American Medical Informatics Association Manos, D. (2009). New study shows few hospitals have comprehensive EHR. Healthcare IT News. McDonald, C. J. (1997). The barriers to electronic medical record systems and how to overcome them. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 4(3), 213-221. Noteboom, C. , Bastola, D. , Qureshi, S. (2012, January). Cycles of Electronic Health Records Adaptation by Physicians: How Do the Positive and Negative Experiences with the EHR System Affect Physiciansââ¬â¢ EHR Adaptation Process?. In System Science (HICSS), 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on (pp. 2685-2695). IEEE Prensky, M. (2001). Digital natives, digital immigrants Part 2: Do they really think differently?. On the horizon, 9(6), 1-6 Simon, S. R. , Soran, C. S. , Kaushal, R. , Jenter, C. A. , Volk, L. A. , Burdick, E. , â⬠¦ Bates, D. W. (2009). Physiciansââ¬â¢ use of key functions in electronic health records from 2005 to 2007: a statewide survey. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 16(4), 465-470. Vishwanath, A. , Scamurra, S. D. (2007). Barriers to the adoption of electronic health records: using concept mapping to develop a comprehensive empirical model. Health Informatics Journal, 13(2), 119-134. How to cite Research Proposal Electronic Health Records, Essays
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Free Solution Critical Analysis Of The Currency Carry Trade Strategy
Question: Critical analysis of the currency carry trade strategy employed in the financial world to leverage the high interest rate environment prevailing in a foreign market. Answer: Introduction A Carry trade strategy is a way to make money by borrowing a currency with a rather low interest rate, convert that currency to another currency or bonds in another country, and make money on the basis that the bought currency will increase in value, or the bought bond gives a higher interest, and then convert back to the original currency. When buying strictly in terms of currency it is crucial to make sure the exchange rate between the two currencies doesn't change in a negative way, because that way we could actually lose money. In our FX Carry Trade portfolio we have chosen to focus on the foreign exchange rate of AUD/USD. Our work will be based on historical data as well as recent data collected in EIKON, official government websites and various news sites. For the chosen foreign exchange rates we conducted a linear regression analysis. We collected historical data with a quarterly interval. The regression analysis is used by us because it demonstrates a simple way of analyzing data. We opted to input the inflation rates and interest rate of both Australia and The United States and analyzed on the percentage change. We refer to section 3 for the regressions. Our carry trade portfolio will be in the span of January 2016 - June 2016. As the interest rate in Australia is a lot higher than in USA we expect that our carry trade strategy will involve investing in Australian dollars since we get a higher profit over time and when calculating the forward spot rate we dont expect that number to have depreciated or appreciated enough to justify converting. In the latest year the AUD/USD foreign exchange rate has been up and down but on average on a stable level which also helps justifying the forward rate not being drastically changed at the end of our carry trade. Theoretical Models We have chosen the two commonly used theories which are the IRP and RPPP. These models are based on the interest rate of a country and the inflation rate of a country. 2.1 Relative Purchasing Power Parity The absolute purchasing power parity states that spot exchange rate is determined by the relative prices of similar prices of similar basket of goods (the Big Mac Index example). However, the relative purchasing power theory makes the statement that the relative change in prices between two countries over a period of time determines that period's change in the exchange rate. This is interesting because it takes the PPP theory a bit further. If spot exchange rate between two countries starts in equilibrium any change in the differential rate of inflation between the countries is often - over the long run - also equal, but opposite, change in the spot exchange rate. 2.2 Interest Rate Parity The interest rate parity (IRP) is a theory that links the foreign exchange markets and the international money markets. It states that the difference in national interest rates for bonds, securities etc. of similar risk and maturity should be equal to the forward rate premium or discount for the foreign currency. Basicly if you have a currency with an interest yield of 4.0 % and another currency with an 8.0 % interest yield, the forward premium is 3.96 % (you subtract transaction costs). The theory is relevant for our carry trade strategy because it can determine whether a certain currency is better off being converted to another currency or simply invested with the country's interest rate. 3- E-views Result: 3.1- IRP: Dependent Variable: EXCHANGE_RATE Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/16 Time: 19:58 Sample (adjusted): 1995Q4 2015Q4 Included observations: 81 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. CASH_RATE -0.033821 0.006191 -5.462718 0.0000 C 0.850723 0.020604 41.28826 0.0000 R-squared 0.274173 Mean dependent var 0.771084 Adjusted R-squared 0.264985 S.D. dependent var 0.152852 S.E. of regression 0.131044 Akaike info criterion -1.202181 Sum squared resid 1.356636 Schwarz criterion -1.143059 Log likelihood 50.68834 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.178461 F-statistic 29.84129 Durbin-Watson stat 0.184143 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 3.2- PPP: Dependent Variable: EXCHANGE_RATE Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/16 Time: 20:09 Sample (adjusted): 1995Q4 2015Q4 Included observations: 80 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. UNEMPLOYMENT -0.030081 0.005825 -5.163990 0.0000 INFLATION_ 0.013209 0.003831 3.447452 0.0009 C 0.838803 0.020943 40.05092 0.0000 R-squared 0.367131 Mean dependent var 0.771216 Adjusted R-squared 0.350693 S.D. dependent var 0.153811 S.E. of regression 0.123941 Akaike info criterion -1.301251 Sum squared resid 1.182817 Schwarz criterion -1.211925 Log likelihood 55.05004 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.265438 F-statistic 22.33407 Durbin-Watson stat 0.164007 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 3.3- The last model of combined : ( Inflation rate and Cash rate) Dependent Variable: EXCHANGE_RATE Method: Least Squares Date: 05/28/16 Time: 20:14 Sample (adjusted): 1995Q4 2015Q4 Included observations: 81 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. INFLATION_ 0.012770 0.003723 3.430215 0.0010 CASH_RATE -0.031008 0.005866 -5.286370 0.0000 C 0.835498 0.019832 42.12784 0.0000 R-squared 0.369312 Mean dependent var 0.771084 Adjusted R-squared 0.353141 S.D. dependent var 0.152852 S.E. of regression 0.122935 Akaike info criterion -1.317992 Sum squared resid 1.178811 Schwarz criterion -1.229308 Log likelihood 56.37866 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.282411 F-statistic 22.83726 Durbin-Watson stat 0.175242 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 The last regression is the best result because of adjusted R-squared is more confident because it explains 35% of the model errors. more to discuss : CR -coefficient Level of Significance: a = 0.05 P-value: 0.000 0.05 So, this is significant as it is less than the 95% confidence threshold of 0.05. 3.4- Regression Equation: AUD/USD = b0 +b1 CASH RATE+b2 INFLATION RATE +t AUD/USD = (0.835)+( -0.031)+( 0.013) Where, b0= stationary = 0.835 b1=coefficient of CASH RATE : The exchange rate AUD/USD change by -3.1% in the same way for every unit change in the Cash Rate b2=coefficient of INFLATION RATE : The exchange rate AUD/USD change by 0.013 in the same way for every unit change in the INFLATION RATE. Methodology Various models have been formulated in order to ascertain the foreign exchange rate accurately. Regression model is used in this context due to its simplicity and ease of use. Cash rate and Inflation are two of the vital units which are used in the application of the model. These two units materially affect the determination of the exchange rate. Apart from this, there are other economic variables which are also considered in the model. These are variables such as the GDP of the nation and CPI rate that have a direct impact on the movement and determination of the exchange rate. For the purpose of this analysis, a set of data was taken to form the sample. The rate of changes in the exchange rate between AUD USD was taken as the dependent variable whereas other variables such as cash rate, CPI, GDP and inflation rate were considered independent variables. The independent variables have been assumed in percentage. Thereafter, all the resultant data was assessed with the help of E-view program which involved the application of different tests. The level of data significance was analyzed using various tests such as T-test, F-test and other statistical analysis while the regression model was used to construct the model. Regression analysis was performed repeatedly on the data set in order to help eliminate all the irrelevant factors. The best model is the one which gives less forecasting error in comparison to other models. Conclusion This report makes a critical analysis of the currency carry trade strategy employed in the financial world to leverage the high interest rate environment prevailing in a foreign market. As it is believed by certain financial experts that carry trade does not result in any significant gain since the return earned in a foreign currency is eroded through the interest rate parity. A critical analysis of this notion has been made with the help a regression model which predicts the exchange rate between AUD/USD at some time in future. For that a single equation has been derived and modelled with cash rate and interest rate as the independent variables with the exchange rate being the dependent variable. The results of the regression analysis gave the important parameters which needs to be used for a successful carry trade. Two relevant theoretical concepts have also been discussed in detail in this article namely Relative Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity which form the basi s of currency carry trade. A thorough evaluation of all these factors covered in this report has helped in establishing a successful trading strategy. This work can act as a guiding material for any investor who wants to take advantage of high interest rate environment in the emerging markets through currency carry trade. Reference Lists Australian Financial Review 2016, Australia dollar slammed by inflation outlook, bonds surge, market, currency, viewed at 12 May 2016. Engel, C 2015, EXCHANGE RATES, INTEREST RATES, AND THE RISK PREMIUM. University of Wisconsin, NBER Working Paper No. 21042, viewed at 12 May 2016. Scutt, D 2016, Australia's trade deficit was larger than anyone thought in February, Business Insider Australia, Money Market, viewed at 12 May 2016.
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